Project
MAPPY Final Report (pdf), Results and Deliverables.
The MAPPY study (Multisectoral analysis of climate and land use change impacts on pollinators, plant diversity and crops yields) aims to identify the interactions between pollinators, plant biodiversity and crop yields, in order to establish climate projections for the period up to 2070. These climate scenarios will be worked out for target regions in Western Europe (Belgium, Germany, Austria, Spain and the Netherlands).
The MAPPY project is part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI CLimate, and funded by FFG (Austria), F.R.S.-FNRS and BELSPO (Belgium), DLR/BMBF (Germany), NWO (Netherlands) and AEI (Spain) with co-funding bye the European Union (Grant n°776608).
Objectives
The overall objective of the MAPPY project is to study quantitatively feedback processes linking pollinators, plant diversity and crop yields in the context of climate and land use changes. A set of complementary models will be assembled, iteratively, to capture the dynamics of this complex system at regional level. Dynamic vegetation models and species distribution models will be used to assess the impacts of future climate change. Then, an agent-based model will be used to derive detailed land use and land cover change scenarios for the future at the scale of studied regions. The results of this combination of models will make it possible to assess the potential impacts on pollinators communities, which will make it possible to refine crop models. Finally, the socio-economic impacts of these forecasts will be assessed.
Methodology
In order to study quantitatively the feedback processes linking pollinators, plant diversity and crop yields accounting for climate and land use changes, at regional level, we will assemble a set of models using specific high resolution databases. We will run this suite of models for several case study regions, at least one for each country involved in the partnership of MAPPY, to explore these feedbacks and perform projections up to 2070. The case study regions will be selected in close consultation with stakeholders, according to their interests. To ensure the full participation of stakeholders, a subcontractor (EcoRes) will act as a link between scientists and the end users of the results.
The project is subdivided in 7 work packages.
Case study regions
- Austria: Eisenwurzen Nature Park (5740 km2); crops, alpine pastures and forests
- Belgium: Wallonia (16844 km2); 10 agricultural regions
- Germany: Rhine-Main (11000 km2) and Rhine-Rur (2354 km2) areas; urbanisation and intensive agriculture
- Netherlands: south-western part (10000 km2); agriculture, natural areas and small cities (data on pollinators)
- Spain: Cordoba Province in Andalusia (13771 km2); olive and wheat crops, with sunflowers, as well as citrus and vineyards
